✔ PASS Temporal & Time-Series task_010_Q10_peer_exclusion_moving_average Scaled: 1M+ Records Ordered: Yes

Window Frame Exclusion: Peer Period Average via EXCLUDE CURRENT ROW

Candidate Latency (1M Rows)
307.19 ms
(1.0x faster than golden)
Golden Latency (1M Rows)
309.61 ms
DuckDB in-memory engine
Underlying Data Volume
1,000,000 rows
26.7 MiB across 1 table
Evaluated Model
gemini-3.8-flash-low
Gen Latency: 14.7s
✔ Correctness Verified on 1M+ Records
Candidate SQL output matches ground truth golden query across all multiset rows and numeric tolerances (tol=1e-3). Zero data skew or anti-patterns detected on full dataset scale.

1. Analytical Significance & What It Means

Scenario & Frontier Trap
Business Scenario & Problem

To detect anomalous spikes, analysts compare a metric against the average of neighboring days, strictly excluding the current day's value to avoid skewing the baseline.

⚡ The Frontier Trap (Why LLMs Fail)

Computing rolling averages without excluding the current row inflates the baseline during the spike itself, hiding the anomaly.

Prompt / User Request Given to Model
To detect anomalous spikes, analysts compare a metric against the average of neighboring days, strictly excluding the current day's value to avoid skewing the baseline.

Execute the required analytical SQL calculation in DuckDB.
Expected output columns: service_id, call_date, total_calls, peer_baseline_avg, spike_factor.
Results should be ordered as specified.

2. Underlying Tables, Row Counts & Data Volume

1 Tables (1,000,000 rows • 26.7 MiB)

Production-scale fixtures loaded into the isolated DuckDB sandbox with at least 1,000,000 records per table:

📊 daily_api_calls 1,000,000 rows 26.7 MiB Data Volume
service_id (VARCHAR) call_date (DATE) total_calls (INTEGER)
Data Preview (showing sample rows from 1,000,000 total rows):
# service_id call_date total_calls
1 auth-svc 2026-03-01 00:00:00 1,000
2 auth-svc 2026-03-02 00:00:00 1,050
3 auth-svc 2026-03-03 00:00:00 9,500
4 auth-svc 2026-03-04 00:00:00 1,020
5 auth-svc 2026-03-05 00:00:00 1,010
6 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 4,235
7 auth-svc 2026-01-02 00:00:00 2,428
8 auth-svc 2026-01-03 00:00:00 1,652
9 auth-svc 2026-01-04 00:00:00 368
10 auth-svc 2026-01-05 00:00:00 3,448
11 auth-svc 2026-01-06 00:00:00 5,665
12 auth-svc 2026-01-07 00:00:00 3,114
13 auth-svc 2026-01-08 00:00:00 1
14 auth-svc 2026-01-09 00:00:00 1,017
15 auth-svc 2026-01-10 00:00:00 1

3. Graphical Query Execution Plan & Cost Bottlenecks

Physical Operator Tree (DuckDB 2.0 Profiler)

Visual flowchart of the physical execution pipeline. Operators with high relative costs (≥ 20% of query runtime or heavy latency) are visually highlighted:

Pipeline Latency Distribution (Total Plan Time: 566.80 ms) Nodes consuming ≥ 20% of query runtime are highlighted with glowing borders
📐 PROJECTION 1.3%
Latency: 7.13 ms
Rows In/Out: 1,000,000
Data Vol: 38.15 MB
📁 Projections: ['__internal_decomp...
⏳ ORDER_BY 🔥 9.5% Cost
Latency: 53.69 ms
Rows In/Out: 1,000,000
Data Vol: 36.24 MB
⚠️ Heavy Execution Bottleneck (9.5% of query runtime)
📐 PROJECTION 1.8%
Latency: 10.40 ms
Rows In/Out: 1,000,000
Data Vol: 36.24 MB
📁 Projections: ['__internal_compre...
📐 PROJECTION 🔥 10.6% Cost
Latency: 60.21 ms
Rows In/Out: 1,000,000
Data Vol: 38.15 MB
📁 Projections: ['service_id', 'cal...
⚠️ Heavy Execution Bottleneck (10.6% of query runtime)
📐 PROJECTION 0.0%
Latency: 0.25 ms
Rows In/Out: 1,000,000
Data Vol: 38.15 MB
📁 Projections: ['#0', '#1', '#2', ...
🪟 WINDOW 🔥 74.6% Cost
Latency: 422.61 ms
Rows In/Out: 1,000,000
Data Vol: 30.52 MB
📁 Projections: avg(total_calls) OV...
⚠️ Heavy Execution Bottleneck (74.6% of query runtime)
🔍 TABLE_SCAN 2.2%
Latency: 12.53 ms
Rows In/Out: 1,000,000
Data Vol: 22.89 MB
📁 memory.main.daily_api_calls
Operator Cost % Latency Processed Rows Data Volume Details / Table Status
WINDOW 74.6% 422.61 ms 1,000,000 30.52 MB Projections: avg(total_calls) OVER (PARTITION BY 🔥 BOTTLENECK
PROJECTION 10.6% 60.21 ms 1,000,000 38.15 MB Projections: ['service_id', 'call_date', 'total_ 🔥 BOTTLENECK
ORDER_BY 9.5% 53.69 ms 1,000,000 36.24 MB - 🔥 BOTTLENECK
TABLE_SCAN 2.2% 12.53 ms 1,000,000 22.89 MB memory.main.daily_api_calls Normal
PROJECTION 1.8% 10.40 ms 1,000,000 36.24 MB Projections: ['__internal_compress_string_uhugei Normal
PROJECTION 1.3% 7.13 ms 1,000,000 38.15 MB Projections: ['__internal_decompress_string(#0)' Normal
PROJECTION 0.0% 0.25 ms 1,000,000 38.15 MB Projections: ['#0', '#1', '#2', '#3', '#3'] Normal

4. Queries Executed (Candidate vs Golden Ground Truth)

Beautified & Syntax Highlighted
Candidate SQL Executed by gemini-3.8-flash-low (Runtime on 1M Rows: 307.19 ms)
-- Calculate 5-day baseline average strictly excluding current row

SELECT service_id,
       call_date,
       total_calls, -- 2 days before and 2 days after, excluding current day
 round(avg(total_calls) OVER (PARTITION BY service_id
                              ORDER BY call_date ROWS BETWEEN 2 PRECEDING AND 2 FOLLOWING exclude CURRENT ROW), 2) AS peer_baseline_avg, -- Spikiness ratio
 round(total_calls / avg(total_calls) OVER (PARTITION BY service_id
                                            ORDER BY call_date ROWS BETWEEN 2 PRECEDING AND 2 FOLLOWING exclude CURRENT ROW), 2) AS spike_factor
FROM daily_api_calls
ORDER BY call_date;
Golden Reference Ground Truth SQL (Runtime on 1M Rows: 309.61 ms)
-- Calculate 5-day baseline average strictly excluding current row

SELECT service_id,
       call_date,
       total_calls, -- 2 days before and 2 days after, excluding current day
 round(avg(total_calls) OVER (PARTITION BY service_id
                              ORDER BY call_date ROWS BETWEEN 2 PRECEDING AND 2 FOLLOWING exclude CURRENT ROW), 2) AS peer_baseline_avg, -- Spikiness ratio
 round(total_calls / avg(total_calls) OVER (PARTITION BY service_id
                                            ORDER BY call_date ROWS BETWEEN 2 PRECEDING AND 2 FOLLOWING exclude CURRENT ROW), 2) AS spike_factor
FROM daily_api_calls
ORDER BY call_date;
DuckDB Fixture Setup DDL & Data Population
CREATE TABLE daily_api_calls (service_id VARCHAR, call_date DATE, total_calls INT);


INSERT INTO daily_api_calls
VALUES ('auth-svc', '2026-03-01', 1000),
       ('auth-svc', '2026-03-02', 1050),
       ('auth-svc', '2026-03-03', 9500),
       -- Major spike
 ('auth-svc', '2026-03-04', 1020),
 ('auth-svc', '2026-03-05', 1010);

5. Query Results & Expected Ground Truth

Tabular Comparison
Actual Candidate Output (1,000,000 rows × 5 cols)
# service_id call_date total_calls peer_baseline_avg spike_factor
1 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 3,669 4,770.5 0.77
2 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 5,912 2,748.33 2.15
3 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 3,629 2,990.25 1.21
4 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 947 3,537.25 0.27
5 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 1,433 1,938 0.74
6 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 3,175 1,872.5 1.7
7 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 1 4,300.75 0
8 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 5,109 3,674.75 1.39
9 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 7,486 2,287 3.27
10 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 4,037 4,470 0.9
11 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 1 4,202 0
12 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 5,284 1,696.25 3.12
13 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 1 2,403.25 0
14 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 2,746 2,046.75 1.34
15 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 1,582 1,199.5 1.32
16 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 1,320 1,692.25 0.78
17 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 731 2,124.5 0.34
18 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 1,710 1,920.5 0.89
19 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 3,886 1,229.25 3.16
20 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 1,745 3,046.75 0.57
21 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 731 2,873 0.25
22 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 5,860 983.5 5.96
23 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 1 2,675.5 0
24 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 1,457 2,473 0.59
25 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 2,654 955 2.78
Showing first 25 of 1,000,000 total rows.
Expected Golden Output (1,000,000 rows × 5 cols)
# service_id call_date total_calls peer_baseline_avg spike_factor
1 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 2,117 102 20.75
2 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 1 3,179.33 0
3 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 203 2,334.25 0.09
4 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 7,218 2,340.25 3.08
5 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 1 4,144.5 0
6 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 9,156 2,327.75 3.93
7 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 1 2,812.25 0
8 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 2,091 2,747.25 0.76
9 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 1 3,174.25 0
10 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 1,831 3,600.25 0.51
11 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 8,774 3,652.5 2.4
12 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 3,535 5,571 0.63
13 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 9,243 4,439.5 2.08
14 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 2,436 5,642 0.43
15 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 3,013 6,328.5 0.48
16 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 6,777 4,063.5 1.67
17 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 6,858 3,796.75 1.81
18 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 3,947 5,541 0.71
19 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 1,450 4,471.25 0.32
20 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 7,079 2,600 2.72
21 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 1 4,113 0
22 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 5,002 2,500.5 2
23 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 2,921 1,251.25 2.33
24 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 1 2,480 0
25 auth-svc 2026-01-01 00:00:00 1 1,975.5 0
Showing first 25 of 1,000,000 total rows.
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